Mad Professor – the "Wizard of Oz" ....

My apologies to the readers for the following negatively toned thread ...... for the most part, I absolutely despise personal attacks against others in the Dice Community as it usually just a distraction from the real issues at hand. HOWEVER, there are a few out there that enjoy stroking their egos by embellishing to the point that their fictional and theoretical writings may sound smooth, but it does not give a realistic view of live casino craps.

so I apologize for entering into this thread and I hope that most of you will stop now and not read it ..... for others that are as much a "Retard" as I and can not help themselves, I hope the following is a little entertaining and not a total waste of time & bandwidth ....

see Hangover clip for definition of "Retard":
http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=dqQ8AHCrCtw

A few of us that play craps most everyday refer to Mad Professor (MP) as the "Wizard of Oz" - hiding behind a curtain and his monitor instead of on live casino tables ....

... now don't get me wrong - I will be the 1st person to advise every craps player to read everything MP writes (don't have to buy his book cause it is just a copy of his internet postings) ..... but after you read each of his well crafted words, take a step back and think about what you just read --- for the most part, MP's writings are just basic common sense about the game we all love

as a good friend and mentor of mine noted, waayy tooo many of us get caught up in our own "aimlessly chasing MP story" --- I am guilty of that, but may the Dice Gods curse me with a day of PSOs if I ever just blindly grab onto MP's coattails like so many do

What we do know about MP (mostly obtained from monitoring his editings on his FaceBook page):

•  MP's real name is Paul L.(blah-blah French name)

•  he lives in Hamilton, ON (near King Street East between Spadina Avenue and Melrose Ave South) --- that's Canada, a place not well known for it's craps players & it's a far cry from anything close to resembling Las Vegas ...

•  MP's email address is: mad_6_8_professor@hotmail.com

• MP has over 101 albums of car pictures on his FaceBook page ... that's albums, with each album averaging about 70 individual pictures of cars or roughly 7,000 car pictures

•  no one I know has ever seen him shoot anywhere except in a few of his local casinos in Canada and across the border in NY, yet he claims in his "Bible" to make nearly $400,000. annually from craps and from constantly traveling all over the world -- all done with mainly $5. to $25. bets on himself -- not betting on anyone else at the table .... to mathematically do this, MP would have to have:

1.  60 rolls every time he touched the dice;
2.  have no PSOs;
3.  power press on himself;
4.  play more than the few hours he claims to play each week;
5.  take helicopters and borrow Tiger Woods' jet to travel to every casino he claims to play in all year long (thereby eliminating travel time so that he puts in enough time on the tables) 

AND if he did make that much $$$ every year playing craps, then he would have absolutely never enough time:

• to write all his writings;
• to talk to all his casino friends to get the info about where they play (and then pens it himself as if he were there);
• AND most importantly, MP would never have enough time to post all his car pictures on the internet on at least 2 different websites (Dice Institute and Face Book) ....

if there ever was something so close to imposterization, I would dare say it has been done perfectly by the man behind the curtain and his monitor - the Mad Professor

...... and if we give him the benefit of the doubt of making $1,000. per day then he would have to play 400 days per year to equal his claim of $400,000. per year (see page 295 of MP's "Crapshooting Bible")

- and that would include ZERO Loss Days per year (MP even vaguely alludes that he may have several "losing for a few days" sessions on page 296)

- and on top of his fictitious writings, I believe his accomplishments are way overstated ... how can he get $400,000 per year averaging "4 or 5 days per week" (page 21, yet he has recently posted on DI.com that he now plays less) at $1,000. per day ...... he just does not add up in the real world

4.5 days x $1,000 x 52 weeks = $234,000 or more than 40% LESS than what he claims he makes IF he is perfect for the year & has ZERO losing days ..... and also assumes he takes zero vacation weeks

As noted by one of our fellow CAPers:

"Has anyone ever seen both the Mad Professor and the Captain in the same place at the same time?? Oops, wait, no one has ever seen either of them. My bad...Has anyone ever not seen both of them in the same place at the same time??? Wait, that doesn't make any sense. But then, much of what we hear doesn't! LoL"

Dave

On several occasions Mad Professor has made posts that are not factually true, thereby adding credibility that all his exploits are not for real ... consider what the popular but never seen Craps ghost author - Mad Professor - posted the following without an accredited cite on May 6, 2008 on http://diceinstitute.proboards.com/:

... with the recent announcement by Harrah’s that they are increasing the maximum Fire-bet limit from $5 to $25, thereby moving the upper maximum-payout for this wager from $5,000 to $25,000

so I thought I would hit the Strip to see if there was any truth to this rumor ..... dealers & Boxes at Bally's & Caesars knew nothing of this news and as of today -- over a year and a half after Mad Professor made this erroneous post and no one in the world has raised their Fire Bet to $25. ......

1st - the maximum Harrah's Fire Bet is not $5 as MP posted, but $10 on several Vegas properties including Caesar's, Rio, Paris, Bally's and Harrah's --- if the Mad Professor was for real and actually played the Fire Bet on a real table instead of stealing information from outdated internet resources like the Wizard of Odds, he would have easily known the maximum Harrah's Fire Bet was not $5 as he posted;

2nd - it can not be arbitrarily done without the State Gaming Commission approving the higher payouts unless they originally had the $25 option approved with their original application .....

I seriously doubt this is the case ...... Mad Professor went on to explain in his post that sometimes he will ask the Boxman to allow higher bets on the Fire Bet and they would make exceptions for him ..... again I contend this is not possible without State Gaming Board approval in advance

even irishsetter is agreeing with our MP allegations that MPaul's posts are more unrealistic theories than probable when he posted on Heavy's Forum ( http://axispower.proboards.com/ ) :

Quote:

irishsetter Dice Guru « Reply #17 February 17, 2010 at 11:25 » ... I'm going to say something, and I'm sure it'll be also taken out of context by MP and the Short Bus cut and paste brigade. The BoneTracker edge-determination is ALREADY mostly meaningless unless you add some variables. ... So, when you say a player should place " the lion's share of your betting-weight on your top one or two box-numbers," it's an oversimplified answer, with a largely overstated ROI figure attached to it. The fact is, I think a player should wager largely on those numbers that have historically appeared. However, I think players need to have alternative plans of action, and a more realistic view of profit potential because our edge is dynamic. If you were to cut up a large sample of BT data, and take snap shots at different times, the edge on given numbers will be dynamic depending on where in the sample set, size of the sub set etc. The problem with using BT as the end all is if the sample size is too small, then the data is subject to normal variance. When the sample size gets too large, there's a smoothing effect. So, feel free to lead players down a primrose path with your simplistic view. I have no doubt that some members will discount my point of view. But I also have no doubt that many players have disappeared from the DI community over the years because they believed your over simplified, overstated and over-hyped predictive model.

 And a reply to this quote:

Re: Debunking the "Wizard of Oz" ....
Post by The Lion on Feb 18, 2010, 8:17pm

When we say it we get ripped, but when Irish says it he gets applause. Well Irish, you have finally gotten my applause too! Absofknlutely well said! The naive misuse of BT included. MP propaganda is just that. He mostly plays at home, not for real in casinos. So the pied piper HAS led many to the abyss.

A great teacher who could not perform in the function that he was teaching once said: I can teach but I can't do, and I am a great teacher. WHY? Because I have spent decades refining the sound bytes that will teach you what you need to know and REMEMBER UNDER STRESS.

MP has done just that. He has issued resonating sound bytes from his fictional expertise and those sound bytes have led the lemmings over the cliff.

Thank you Irish for putting it all in one post succinctly. Did I say we agree?!

And thank you Harley for the cut and paste here. Now, I hope Irish reads it. And MP.

........ seriously, isn't it sad when 1 computer simulator attacks another theorists --- I guess it takes one to know one --- here's another post by irishsetter attacking MP on Heavy's board:

Quote:

« Result #9 on Feb 17, 2010, 5:59pm » ... my historical data indicates no such thing can be said of MP, so my predictive model indicates that we'll see more, unwitnessed, unverifiable, over simplified, theoretical clap-trap from him in the future. BTW, nice cherry-picking/manipulation of data for shooterx, MP. The next time I do analysis, I'll only use the data that suits my theory and omit that which does not.

http://axispower.proboards.com/index.cgi....ead=8911&page=1

...... I will later post more examples to debunk more of his postings